Effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions in the early phase of the COVID-19 epidemic in Saudi Arabia

Non-pharmaceutical interventions have been widely employed to control the COVID-19 pandemic. Their associated effect on SARS-CoV-2 transmission have however been unequally studied across regions. Few studies have focused on the Gulf states despite their potential role for global pandemic spread, in particular in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia through religious pilgrimages. We study the association between NPIs and SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia during the first pandemic wave between March and October 2020. We infer associations between NPIs introduction and lifting through a spatial SEIR-type model that allows for inferences of region-specific changes in transmission intensity. We find that reductions in transmission were associated with NPIs implemented shortly after the first reported case including Isolate and Test with School Closure (region-level mean estimates of the reduction in R0 ranged from 25–41%), Curfew (20–70% reduction), and Lockdown (50–60% reduction), although uncertainty in the estimates was high, particularly for the Isolate and Test with School Closure NPI (95% Credible Intervals from 1% to 73% across regions). Transmission was found to increase progressively in most regions during the last part of NPI relaxation phases. These results can help informing the policy makers in the planning of NPI scenarios as the pandemic evolves with the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants and the availability of vaccination.

Community-Based Seroprevelance of SARS-CoV-2 in Saudi Arabia.

Introduction  The new coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a major global concern. Due to the number of asymptomatic cases that go untested, the actual proportion of those who have been infected is likely to be higher than the reported prevalence. Thus, investigating the exact proportion of those who developed antibodies against the virus through serological surveys is crucial to identify the immune status of the population and direct public health decisions accordingly. Objectives The aim of this study is to estimate the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in the community and to describe the epidemiological characteristics of the discovered cases. Methods Between July and October 2020, a cross-sectional sero-survey was conducted including a total of 15,873 serum samples collected from seven regions within the kingdom. Using a multistage convenient sampling, people were invited to participate in an interviewer-administrated questionnaire. Afterward, blood samples were collected and seroprevalence was determined using the SARS-CoV-2 virus IgG/IgM antibody detection kits (ELISA). A p-value of <0.05 and 95% CI were used to report the significance. Results The overall seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in the sample was 17.0%, and Makkah region constituted the highest number of reactive cases (33.3%). There was a significant association between all comorbidities and having symptoms except for diabetes. In addition, age, education, nationality, and region were all significant predeterminants of sero-result. Also, contact with a confirmed or suspected case increased the risk of being seropositive by nearly 1.5 times. Conclusion This study estimated the national seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in Saudi Arabia to be 17%. At the time of this study, most of the population did not have the SARS-CoV-2 specific antibodies. This suggests that the population is still below the threshold of herd immunity and emphasizes the importance of mass vaccination programs and abiding by recommended prevention precautions.

Effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions in the early phase of the COVID-19 epidemic in Saudi Arabia.

Non-pharmaceutical interventions have been widely employed to control the COVID-19 pandemic. Their associated effect on SARS-CoV-2 transmission have however been unequally studied across regions. Few studies have focused on the Gulf states despite their potential role for global pandemic spread, in particular in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia through religious pilgrimages. We study the association between NPIs and SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia during the first pandemic wave between March and October 2020. We infer associations between NPIs introduction and lifting through a spatial SEIR-type model that allows for inferences of region-specific changes in transmission intensity. We find that reductions in transmission were associated with NPIs implemented shortly after the first reported case including Isolate and Test with School Closure (region-level mean estimates of the reduction in R0 ranged from 25-41%), Curfew (20-70% reduction), and Lockdown (50-60% reduction), although uncertainty in the estimates was high, particularly for the Isolate and Test with School Closure NPI (95% Credible Intervals from 1% to 73% across regions). Transmission was found to increase progressively in most regions during the last part of NPI relaxation phases. These results can help informing the policy makers in the planning of NPI scenarios as the pandemic evolves with the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants and the availability of vaccination.

Estimating the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions to mitigate COVID-19 spread in Saudi Arabia.

BACKGROUND: The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) quickly controlled the spread of SARS-CoV-2 by implementing several non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), including suspension of international and national travel, local curfews, closing public spaces (i.e., schools and universities, malls and shops), and limiting religious gatherings. The KSA also mandated all citizens to respect physical distancing and to wear face masks. However, after relaxing some restrictions during June 2020, the KSA is now planning a strategy that could allow resuming in-person education and international travel. The aim of our study was to evaluate the effect of NPIs on the spread of the COVID-19 and test strategies to open schools and resume international travel. METHODS: We built a spatial-explicit individual-based model to represent the whole KSA population (IBM-KSA). The IBM-KSA was parameterized using country demographic, remote sensing, and epidemiological data. A social network was created to represent contact heterogeneity and interaction among age groups of the population. The IBM-KSA also simulated the movement of people across the country based on a gravity model. We used the IBM-KSA to evaluate the effect of different NPIs adopted by the KSA (physical distancing, mask-wearing, and contact tracing) and to forecast the impact of strategies to open schools and resume international travels. RESULTS: The IBM-KSA results scenarios showed the high effectiveness of mask-wearing, physical distancing, and contact tracing in controlling the spread of the disease. Without NPIs, the KSA could have reported 4,824,065 (95% CI: 3,673,775-6,335,423) cases by June 2021. The IBM-KSA showed that mandatory mask-wearing and physical distancing saved 39,452 lives (95% CI: 26,641-44,494). In-person education without personal protection during teaching would have resulted in a high surge of COVID-19 cases. Compared to scenarios with no personal protection, enforcing mask-wearing and physical distancing in schools reduced cases, hospitalizations, and deaths by 25% and 50%, when adherence to these NPIs was set to 50% and 70%, respectively. The IBM-KSA also showed that a quarantine imposed on international travelers reduced the probability of outbreaks in the country. CONCLUSIONS: This study showed that the interventions adopted by the KSA were able to control the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the absence of a vaccine. In-person education should be resumed only if NPIs could be applied in schools and universities. International travel can be resumed but with strict quarantine rules. The KSA needs to keep strict NPIs in place until a high fraction of the population is vaccinated in order to reduce hospitalizations and deaths.

High seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 among high-density communities in Saudi Arabia.

BACKGROUND: The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection had been investigated utilizing serology. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This community-based sero-survey was carried out in the neighborhoods of three cities in Saudi Arabia. RESULTS: Of 5629 participants, 2766 (49.1%) were women; and 2148 (38.1%) were 18-34 years of age, and 3645 (64.7%) were from South East Asia. Positive serology was seen in 2825 (50.2% (95% CI: 48.8-51.5%) for SARS-CoV-2 anti-S1 IgG antibodies by ECLIA. Being in the age category of 18-34 years and being from Eastern Mediterranean Region (country A) were associated with higher COVID-19 seropositivity with estimated odds ratio of 1.3 [95% CI 1.1-1.8] and 2.5 [95% CI 1.1.5-4.2] respectively. Gender, social status, education, nationality, symptoms, presence of comorbidities and activity style were positively associated with increased seropositivity. Factors associated negatively with the rate of seropositivity were higher education and having outdoor activity with estimated OR of 0.92 [95% CI 0.46-0.95] and 0.59 [95% CI 0.47-0.74], respectively. CONCLUSION: The study showed high seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 among high density population. Health education campaigns should target middle-aged, those with low education, those living in lower standards and indoor workers.

Covid-19 and non-communicable diseases: evidence from a systematic literature review.

BACKGROUND: Since early 2020, the Covid-19 pandemic has engulfed the world. Amidst the growing number of infections and deaths, there has been an emphasis of patients with non-communicable diseases as they are particularly susceptible to the virus. The objective of this literature review is to systematize the available evidence on the link between non-communicable diseases and Covid-19. METHODS: We have conducted a systematic review of the literature on Covid-19 and non-communicable diseases from December, 2019 until 15th of November, 2020. The search was done in PubMed and in doing so we used a variety of searching terms in order to isolate the final set of papers. At the end of the selection process, 45 papers were selected for inclusion in the literature review. RESULTS: The results from the review indicate that patients with certain chronic illnesses such as diabetes, hypertension (and other cardiovascular diseases), chronic respiratory illnesses, chronic kidney and liver conditions are more likely to be affected by Covid-19. More importantly, once they do get infected by the virus, patients with chronic illnesses have a much higher likelihood of having worse clinical outcomes (developing a more severe form of the disease or dying) than an average patient. There are two hypothesized channels that explain this strong link between the chronic illnesses enumerated above and Covid 19: (i) increased ACE2 (angiotensin-converting enzyme 2) receptor expressions, which facilitates the entry of the virus into the host body; and (ii) hyperinflammatory response, referred to as "cytokine storm". Finally, the literature review does not find any evidence that diabetes or hypertension related medications exacerbate the overall Covid-19 condition in chronic illness patients. CONCLUSIONS: Thus, the evidence points out to 'business as usual' disease management model, although with greater supervision. However, given the ongoing Covid-19 vulnerabilities among people with NCDs, prioritizing them for the vaccination process should also figure high on the agenda on health authorities.

Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) among healthcare workers in Saudi Arabia: comparing case and control hospitals.

Healthcare workers (HCWs) stand at the frontline for fighting coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. This puts them at higher risk of acquiring the infection than other individuals in the community. Defining immunity status among health care workers is therefore of interest since it helps to mitigate the exposure risk. This study was conducted between May 20th and 30th, 2020. Eighty-five hospitals across Kingdom of Saudi Arabia were divided into 2 groups: COVID-19 referral hospitals are those to which RT-PCR-confirmed COVID-19 patients were admitted or referred for management (Case-hospitals). COVID-19 nonaffected hospitals where no COVID-19 patients had been admitted or managed and no HCW outbreak (Control hospitals). Next, seroprevalence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 among HCWs was evaluated; there were 12,621 HCWs from the 85 hospitals. There were 61 case-hospitals with 9379 (74.3%) observations, and 24 control-hospitals with 3242 (25.7%) observations. The overall positivity rate by the immunoassay was 299 (2.36%) with a significant difference between the case-hospital (2.9%) and the control-group (0.8%) (P value <0.001). There was a wide variation in the positivity rate between regions and/or cities in Saudi Arabia, ranging from 0% to 6.31%. Of the serology positive samples, 100 samples were further tested using the SAS2pp neutralization assay; 92 (92%) samples showed neutralization activity. The seropositivity rate in Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is low and varies across different regions with higher positivity in case-hospitals than control-hospitals. The lack of neutralizing antibodies (NAb) in 8% of the tested samples could mean that assay is a more sensitive assay or that neutralization assay has a lower detection limits; or possibly that some samples had cross-reaction to spike protein of other coronaviruses in the assay, but these were not specific to neutralize severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2).